Insurance news

Is the current housing market the sign of a new crisis – or a sign of a new normal in a post-pandemic environment?

Reinsurance broker Lockton Re answered this question via new analysis on the state of US mortgage credit risk, delving into the complexities of the current housing market, characterized by limited supply, robust demand, and diminishing affordability in the aftermath of the pandemic.

The study, titled “Unpacking the Post Pandemic Housing Market: Crisis Incoming or the New Normal,” provides an examination of the market’s fluctuations following the COVID-19 outbreak. It highlights a significant milestone in 2021 when US housing inventory plunged to its lowest in over five decades.

According to the report, the ongoing market conditions and interest rate environment suggest a growing dependence on the construction of new homes to satisfy market demand.

The analysis also pointed out a stark contrast in economic indicators since 2015, noting a roughly 45% rise in median household income against a 140% surge in monthly mortgage payments. This disparity suggests that housing expenses have far exceeded wage growth – by more than 300%.

Lockton Re’s report forecasts that housing supply will remain constrained until there is a decrease in interest rates. However, it anticipates a rebound to pre-pandemic levels of market activity as existing homeowners eventually decide to sell, influenced by more favorable rates.

In the short term, this scenario may prompt reinsurers to explore diversification into other lines of credit. Over the longer term, however, growth is expected in this sector.

Sean Hannah, co-head of mortgage and credit at Lockton Re, shared her insights on the current market challenges.

“Home price inflation coupled with rate hikes have finally pushed buyers past the brink of affordability. Additionally, existing homeowners are reluctant to give up their favorable interest rates to introduce new supply into the market,” Hannah said.

She explained that the restriction of both supply and demand is keeping the market relatively balanced and should bode well for current holders of mortgage credit risk. However, caution is urged for those looking to grow their portfolios.

Joe Koebele, co-head of mortgage and credit at Lockton Re, also commented on the strategic response of insurers and reinsurers to the current market dynamics.

“Despite the current environment many re/insurers are still targeting credit as a business segment with opportunity for growth,” Koebele said. “We are seeing the anticipated reductions in new mortgage credit risk transfer issuance push more re/insurers to look to diversify their business into other lines of credit, such as bank credit risk transfer and significant risk transfer transactions.”

This reflects a broader strategy among re/insurers to navigate the challenging landscape and identify growth opportunities within the credit segment.

Another report from the brokerage indicates that amid a shift towards normalcy during reinsurance renewals, the property insurance sector is expected to maintain a positive rate environment through the first half of the year.

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Global Insurance Law Connect (GILC) has unveiled its first report on the integration of artificial intelligence within the insurance industry, offering a comprehensive analysis from 18 countries.

The report navigates through the transformative effects of AI, including enhancements in efficiency and innovation across various insurance operations, while also spotlighting the associated challenges such as potential biases in AI algorithms, privacy concerns, and a heightened risk of cyber incidents.

AI’s role in changing the insurance landscape

Gillian Davidson, GILC chair and a partner at Sparke Helmore Lawyers, emphasised the critical role of AI in revolutionising the insurance landscape.

“AI has already become an essential part of our daily lives and is quickly making its way into the insurance sector. This trend is expected to continue as AI offers numerous benefits including faster claims processing, improved underwriting, innovative insurance products, streamlined administration processes, and more efficient chatbots,” she said.

A significant highlight of the report is AI’s capability to swiftly process and analyse extensive datasets, a feature that is proving invaluable for risk prediction and assessment.

Using AI to better understand risks

Davidson pointed out how AI’s analytic prowess can assist insurers in penetrating markets with complex risk profiles, particularly where historical data is scant. This analytical advantage is instrumental in crafting precise coverage options, especially in areas like cyber insurance.

“Ultimately, this improved risk analysis will benefit consumers as it enables insurers to offer more relevant and tailored coverage to their customers,” she said.

AI regulations

The evolving regulatory landscape surrounding AI is another focal point of the report, with the insurance industry keeping a keen eye on developments such as the EU’s forthcoming AI Act, which is expected to serve as a regulatory blueprint worldwide.

The sector is also acutely aware of the emerging liabilities and risks that accompany AI adoption, including issues of privacy and cybersecurity.

Insurance distribution models

The report touched on the digital transformation within insurance distribution models, a trend accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic and characterised by a significant shift towards online and digital platforms. This shift is expected to continue, benefiting markets with traditionally low insurance penetration rates.

AI-related challenges

The adoption of AI is not without its data privacy challenges. The report calls attention to the imperative for insurers to establish robust compliance mechanisms with data protection standards to mitigate risks associated with data breaches, and effectively manage any such incidents.

“Currently, insurance solutions tailored to the risks associated with artificial intelligence are still in the early stages of development. However, as the technology advances and becomes more prevalent, and regulatory bodies sharpen their focus, we can expect an increase in AI-targeted risk solutions,” Davidson said.

With the January 2024 renewals complete, what awaits European reinsurers’ underwriting margins in this “new world?”

Fitch Ratings has observed that reinsurers in the region were approaching the peak of their underwriting margins as of January 2024, suggesting a move towards a more balanced supply-and-demand dynamic.

This development aligns with Fitch’s previous forecasts that margins would see slight improvements before peaking in 2024, amid a slowdown in the property catastrophe market dynamics. The trend also mirrors the expectations set for an improved global reinsurance sector outlook this year.

The largest reinsurers in Europe, including Hannover Re, Munich Re, SCOR, and Swiss Re, successfully maintained significant enhancements in their program structures and terms achieved last year.

Fitch noted that their premium income growth outpaced that of 2023, largely fueled by volume rather than price hikes, indicating continued favorable market conditions for further profitable expansion.

Moderated adjustments despite substantial risk-adjusted inflation

Compared to the substantial risk-adjusted price increases in January 2023, the highest since the early 1990s, the current year’s adjustments have moderated. This change reflects improved technical profitability, although nominal price increases remain significant.

For instance, Swiss Re reported a nominal price increase of 9%, which was counterbalanced by an 11% uptick in loss assumptions, primarily due to inflation and casualty losses, resulting in a risk-adjusted price change of -2%, a shift from +5% in January 2023.

The favorable market environment facilitated robust growth in premium volumes, averaging 8.3% across these four companies, contrasting with flat premium volumes during the January 2023 renewals. SCOR experienced the most substantial growth, attributed to its focus on marine, engineering, energy, and alternative solutions sectors.

The renewal period highlighted a preference among reinsurers for property catastrophe, specialty lines, and customized solutions, with a cautious approach towards US casualty business impacted by high inflation on claims.

Despite varying strategies towards US casualty exposure — with Munich Re, SCOR, and Swiss Re reducing their exposure and Hannover Re maintaining its level — the reinsurers upheld their underwriting discipline, especially in natural catastrophe lines and on attachment points.

Renewal of retrocession covers was another common strategy among these firms, aided by an increase in availability and stable or slightly reduced risk-adjusted prices. Munich Re and SCOR expanded their retrocession coverage without increasing total costs, whereas Hannover Re slightly reduced its protection by lowering its “K-cession” securitization.

Fitch Ratings anticipates that strong underwriting profitability will continue to support reinsurers’ ratings throughout the year. Price levels and favorable terms are expected to offset the impact of high claims inflation.

Investment income is also likely to contribute positively to earnings, as reinvestment yields remain above average portfolio yields, underscoring a stable outlook for the sector.

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Global re/insurance broker Miller has announced its foray into the parametric insurance arena with the creation of a new global division.

Led by Alice Glenister, the parametric insurance team set to focus on a vast array of sectors and industries.

The team aims to extend the range of insurance triggers beyond nat cat events, developing custom-tailored solutions that address client needs and risk exposures, including programs like reduction in yield, cyber downtime, and wind deficiency policies.

Glenister, who recently transitioned from her role as director of insurance at Mastercard, will head up the London-based team. Her background includes parametric underwriting experience from her tenure at Generali.

Glenister will be supported by Charlie Liddle, joining from OneGlobal, and Rowan Minhas, who moves from another position within Miller. She shared her excitement about leading this new global team, emphasizing the unique benefits of parametric insurance, such as expedited claims processing and increased transparency.

“Working across a range of sectors, we will be able to provide coverage for those risks that were once considered too complex or too difficult to insure, allowing Miller clients access to enhanced risk management capabilities. By harnessing the power of parametric solutions, Miller are poised to redefine the way their clients protect their assets and mitigate risks in an ever-changing world,” Glenister said.

Martin Henderson, head of energy & construction at Miller, expressed enthusiasm about Glenister’s leadership and the formation of the team.

“The formation of this specialized team underscores Miller’s ongoing commitment to innovation and client-centricity, allowing us to develop and implement cutting-edge parametric solutions tailored to meet the diverse needs of clients across various industries and geographic regions,” Henderson said.

Besides parametrics, the re/insurance broker has also bolstered its energy proposition with the appointment of Hayley Kennedy as client advocate for the upstream and onshore energy divisions.

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Artificial intelligence (AI) has grown to encompass a broad range of financial technology applications, and insurtechs billing their offerings as “AI-powered” must work harder to distinguish themselves in a crowded marketplace, an expert has warned.

Dr. Andrew Johnston (pictured), global head of insurtech at Gallagher Re, suggested that the label “AI” is becoming increasingly redundant as the technology becomes inherent among insurtech offerings.

“Historically, I would say that AI is probably suffering the same fate as the label of ‘insurtech,’ in that it now is a very broad church,” he told Insurance Business.

“It applies to almost everything, and every modern technology that’s being built right now has an AI-type component. So, the term itself is arguably redundant because pretty much any new initiative, business, or capability coming into our industry will be technologically enabled.

“I think we just want to be careful to be specific and to understand the various iterations and sub-sectors of AI and their applicability to the industry so that [AI] doesn’t become a confused term that people throw around.”

The generative AI boom: How should insurtechs position themselves?

Despite his reservations about the liberal use of the “AI” label, Johnston said he is optimistic about the advancements in the technology, particularly in generative AI.

“Looking at technology in isolation, generative AI possibly has the biggest application for us. I also think linear algorithms for things like pattern and anomaly detection have huge applications in our industry, particularly around claims. Clustering and large language models have a significant application in distribution, particularly when we think about things like embedded insurance,” he said.

But Johnston stressed that insurtechs’ focus should be on applying technology to create value and efficiencies in the industry, not AI for its own sake.

“It’s about understanding the technology’s inherent capability in the context of an insurance company’s workings and where it can get the most value,” he said. “To do that, the technology firm must understand the insurance industry well enough to know the right applications.”

Where does the global insurtech market stand today?

Though Gallagher Re’s recent global insurtech report found that funding for the sector declined 43.7% on-year in 2023 (from $8 billion in 2022 to $4.51 billion in 2023), Johnston believes that the insurtech market is healthy and mature.

According to Gallagher Re, 2023 saw re/insurer investment at a record high, with 148 investments in private technology firms, 12% higher than the previous record of 132 investments in 2019.

“2023 [funding], despite being lower, was consistent; it was not volatile at all,” Johnston said.

“At the moment, you’ve got a much more accurate sense of what the market cap is worth for insurtech globally,” said Johnston. “Numbers are down, but they’ve come from a very high peak, which was unsustainable.

“Transaction volume itself didn’t drop anywhere near as much as overall capital invested. What you could ultimately deduce from that is there is still a lot of interest. It’s just that the average check size is smaller, and we have far fewer mega-round deals. I think it’s a very healthy evolution [of the market].”

The key to future success for insurtechs

Johnston also predicted that funding would see a “lift” in 2024 due to several factors, including the improving performances of public insurtech stocks; increased differentiation among insurtech firms by investors; anticipated public offerings and second waves of funding rounds; and growing confidence from industry players, particularly reinsurers, in investing in insurtech.

But what types of insurtechs will successfully find the funding they need in this environment?

“That’s the trillion-dollar question,” said Johnston. “Any company that is genuinely adding long-term value will do well.

“Until recently, some insurtechs were trying to sell the technology as the proposition and that the value is inherently in the technology. But it’s not; it’s the application of that technology and how it can improve or transform traditional commercial success criteria.

“So, I think that the insurtechs that are doing well and will continue to do well are those that understand the pain points in our industry, who are as focused on the ‘what’ as much as the ‘how’.”

Do you agree with Johnston’s views on AI and the global insurtech landscape? Please share your perspective in the comments.

Climate change is expected to have a large impact on global economic losses, with the top two expected to take heavy hits, Swiss Re’s new report has revealed.

In an analysis covering 36 countries, the Swiss Re Institute identified the Philippines and the United States as the nations currently most at risk economically from the intensification of hazards due to climate change.

Top ten countries most exposed to four weather perils

The report, titled “Changing climates: the heat is (still) on,” draws on data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Swiss Re Institute’s own research. It assesses the potential economic impacts if weather-related natural catastrophes become more intense due to climate change.

The findings reveal that the Philippines currently faces the highest economic losses relative to its GDP, at 3%, due to the four major weather perils examined. Meanwhile, the United States, with annual economic losses amounting to US$97 billion (0.38% of GDP), has the highest absolute economic losses worldwide from weather events, alongside a medium likelihood of hazard intensification.

The report also identifies countries with significant insurance protection gaps and those where loss mitigation and adaptation measures are not keeping pace with economic growth as being most financially vulnerable. This is particularly true for fast-growing Asian economies such as Thailand, China, India, and the Philippines, which are deemed most at risk.

Adapting to the changing climate

While flood risks are expected to increase globally, tropical cyclones are identified as the primary cause of major weather-related economic losses in the United States and in east and southeast Asia. In the US, the economic toll from weather events is largely driven by hurricanes, with severe thunderstorms also contributing significantly to the losses.

Jérôme Jean Haegeli, group chief economist at Swiss Re, emphasized the growing severity of weather events as a consequence of climate change, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation measures.

“The insurance industry is ready to play an important role by catalyzing investments in adaptation, directly as a long-term investor and indirectly through underwriting climate-supportive projects and sharing risk knowledge. The more accurately climate change risks are priced, the greater the chances that necessary investments will actually be made,” Haegeli said.

The Swiss Re Institute also underscored the importance of implementing adaptation measures to reduce potential losses. Such measures include enforcing building codes, enhancing flood protection, and avoiding settlement in areas prone to natural hazards.

The report goes on to suggest that the future economic impact of these disasters on each country’s GDP will largely depend on the effectiveness of future adaptation, loss reduction, and prevention strategies.

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Reinsurance giant Munich Re has reported its results for the fiscal year 2023, in line with the new IFRS 9 and IFRS 17 standards starting January 2023.

The company achieved a profit of €4.597 billion, surpassing its revised October target of €4.5 billion, which itself was an increase from the initial forecast of €4.0 billion. The fourth quarter contributed €1.004 billion to the annual profit.

The return on equity (RoE) for Munich Re in 2023 was 15.7%, with earnings per share reaching €33.88. In line with this, the board of management has proposed a dividend of €15 per share, marking a 29.3% increase from the previous year. The solvency ratio, after accounting for the proposed dividend, stood at approximately 267% as of December 31, 2023.

Munich Re 2023 results across segments

Munich Re’s total technical result for the year increased to €7,545 million, with the investment result rising significantly to €5,374 million. However, due to currency losses against the Japanese yen and the US dollar, the currency result dropped to –€292 million.

The operating result saw a decrease to €5,702 million, while the effective tax rate improved to 16.9% due to positive one-time effects. Equity at the end of the year was higher at €29,772 million.

In the reinsurance sector, Munich Re reported a net result of €3,876 million, with insurance revenue climbing to €37,786 million. The life and health reinsurance segment achieved a technical result of €1,433 million, aligning with the adjusted target of €1.4 billion. The net result in this segment increased to €1,428 million. However, insurance revenue saw a slight decrease due to currency effects.

The property-casualty reinsurance segment reported a net result of €2,448 million with insurance revenue rising to €27,061 million. The combined ratio for this segment was 85.2%, with a normalized combined ratio of 86.5%.

Major-loss expenditure for the year was €3,278 million, below the expected value, with the largest individual loss attributed to the earthquake in Turkey, valued at approximately €0.7 billion.

For 2024 reinsurance renewals, Munich Re increased its business volume to €15.7 billion, which the firm attributed to its leverage of expertise and client relationships to tap into attractive business opportunities.

Looking ahead to 2024, Munich Re aims for a net result of €5 billion, with projected insurance revenue totaling €59 billion and an anticipated improvement in the return on investment. The reinsurance segment, meanwhile, has a projected net result of €4.2 billion and an improved combined ratio for property-casualty reinsurance.

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AM Best has revised the long-term issuer credit rating (Long-Term ICR) for A-CAP Group companies following concerns regarding the firm’s management of risks associated with its reinsurance counterparties and its growing dependency on these entities.

The long-term ICR has been adjusted downward to “bbb” from “bbb+,” while the financial strength rating remains steady at B++ (Good). Additionally, AM Best has initiated a review of these ratings with negative implications, signaling potential concerns about the group’s future performance.

AM Best’s review focuses on the adequacy of collateral and the financial stability of its unaffiliated reinsurers in the short term. The group’s strategy of engaging new business with unrated reinsurers has raised questions about its increasing exposure to counterparty risk.

The credit agency pointed out the significant impact of high reinsurance leverage and the deteriorating credit quality of counterparties on A-CAP Group’s capital adequacy. The agency anticipates that A-CAP Group will take steps to mitigate its exposure to reinsurance risk by decreasing its reliance on reinsurance partners.

Despite efforts to secure additional capital to fuel growth, there are concerns that the group may not meet necessary risk-based capital standards if it needs to recapture at-risk business and reintegrate the associated assets on to its balance sheet.

The decision to place A-CAP Group’s ratings under review with negative implications will allow AM Best to assess the group’s 2023 performance, particularly in relation to its ability to manage counterparty risks and enhance capital levels. This evaluation will be based on the group’s statutory financial statements for 2023 and its effectiveness in addressing those concerns.

Despite these challenges, A-CAP Group is expected to report strong operational results, with continued growth in its annuity business as it vies for a larger share of the competitive annuity market. While the group offers some product diversification with life and medical supplement products, its primary focus remains on a range of fixed annuity products.

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Aon’s $13.4 billion NFP deal should see it get a sought-after boost in the attractive middle market. A success story could drive additional consolidation targeting lower-mid and smaller commercial segments, an analyst has told Insurance Business.

“If we see Aon, for example, have phenomenal success with the NFP business and the revenue synergies are enormous, I think that will basically incentivize the other brokers to say, ‘hey, if this is an area where we’re underpenetrated and we can grow quickly, we should pursue that as well’,” Meyer Shields, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) managing director said.

“It’ll be interesting to see whether, as we see the huge publicly traded global brokers, if they take a bigger position in [low-mid and] smaller account brokerage then maybe that creates a cycle of additional consolidation, because it’s an area of strength and no-one wants to completely cede that segment of the marketplace to a competitor,” Shields said.

Aon looks to “change the story”

Aon and NFP struck their deal last December, with the transaction expected to close in mid-2024.

The management team at Aon will be “looking to change the story” for the business and scale up following WTW turbulence, during which competitors “picked off” prime talent, Shields said.

Aon’s failed WTW merger – a timeline

• March 2020: Announcement of Aon’s intention to acquire WTW.
• Throughout 2020-2021: Global regulatory reviews by competition watchdogs, including the US Department of Justice (DOJ).
• May 2021: WTW agrees to sell parts of its business to Gallagher to address antitrust concerns.
• June 2021: The DOJ sues to block the merger, citing antitrust issues.
• July 2021: Aon and WTW mutually decide to terminate the merger agreement due to regulatory hurdles.

Aon targets middle-market growth through NFP deal

Top of mind, though, is likely to be NFP’s middle market reach.

“If you look at the history of Aon, a lot of the brokerages that it consolidated were more focused on larger clients today and have a very significant market share there,” Shields said. “Conversely, there’s probably more opportunity for growth, and, broadly speaking, weaker competition in the smaller edge of the middle market clients serving, or insurance brokers serving, clients of that size.”

It was just a “matter of time” before Aon found a US partner in the middle-market space, according to Phil Trem, MarshBerry president – financial advisory.

“NFP’s profile is a very diversified one that has grown both organically and through M&A in the middle market,” Trem said. “What we’re hearing from both is that the intent is for NFP to continue to operate in a similar capacity as it has historically, giving Aon reach into the middle market.”

Marsh McLennan’s MMA could serve as a template for an Aon-owned NFP

Marsh McLennan’s MMA could serve as something of a blueprint for what an NFP under Aon might look like.

“MMA has been allowed to continue to run fairly independently of Marsh and be a middle-market broker that competes with other middle-market brokers,” Trem said. “The benefit to them is that they have the ability to reach up into the broader Marsh family of companies to leverage the tools and resources that they have to be more competitive if they need them.”

Middle-market-focused US firm MMA and Marsh are separate entities but do learn from each other, as recently noted by Marsh McLennan CEO John Doyle.

In a Q4 2023 earnings call, the Marsh McLennan chief exec welcomed “competition” in the middle market space, pointing out that there are still 30,000 independent agents across the US. It is a figure that remains unchanged from when MMA started being built up 12 years ago.

Given focus in recent years on its Aon United strategy, which stresses “working together as one firm,” Aon may yet take a different and more integrated approach with NFP than Marsh McLennan has with MMA.

Aon/NFP – pinning down a price

Whichever way Aon looks at bringing in the business, NFP is a multi-billion-dollar revenue generator set to open under-tapped opportunities for Aon. Factoring this in, Shields and Trem said the $13.4 billion price tag represented good value for both parties.

Subject to close, this is set to represent one the biggest prices paid for an insurance brokerage, though it far trails the $30 billion Aon had intended to fork out for WTW.

Major insurance broker deals

There had been some confusion around the 15x EBITDA figure cited by NFP on announcement of the deal versus the $13.4 billion figure from Aon. The NFP multiple was said to have baked in future earnings into 2025. Assuming that NFP is expected to continue growing in the interim, a multiple based on previous private earnings would then be “most likely bigger” than 15x, Trem said.

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A recent report from Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) suggests that alternative-reinsurance vehicles are poised to remain the dominant source of new capacity in the reinsurance market for 2024, continuing to exert pressure on pricing within the industry.

This trend emerges in a landscape where traditional balance-sheet reinsurance capacity has seen negligible growth, with the notable exception of a capital increase at Everest Re.

In 2023, the issuance of catastrophe bonds surged to an unprecedented $16.4 billion, with anticipated returns maintaining a position above long-term averages. Matthew Palazola, a senior insurance analyst at BI, highlighted that the reinsurance sector might see continued expansion due to the allure of high returns from alternative capital sources, such as catastrophe bonds, insurance-linked securities (ILS), and sidecars.

“Alternative reinsurance capital dates back to the mid-1990s and has risen to about 16% of the market from 10% in 2014,” Palazola said. “Smoother capital-market transactions have made it easier for funding to enter the industry, which has limited price gains after large catastrophes.”

Despite significant price hikes during the 2023-24 period, there was virtually no addition to balance-sheet reinsurance capacity beyond Everest Re’s capital infusion. Historically, robust markets have seen the establishment of new companies, notably in 2001 and 2005.

Catastrophe bonds experienced a strong inflow in 2023, recording over $16 billion in issuances, a stark increase from the $10 billion in 2022 and $14 billion in 2021. The uptick in issuances could continue as enhanced pricing and rising money-market rates, which secure the collateral, amplify yields, offering more attractive expected returns.

This, coupled with insurers’ higher attachment points and retentions, may further fuel interest in cat bonds.

The BI report also notes the potential for increased capital flows into the ILS market due to reduced capacity in traditional reinsurance and higher premium rates. The public issuance of 144a catastrophe bonds reached $16.4 billion in 2023, with investor demand for property/catastrophe exposure soaring post-Hurricane Ian, as evidenced by a 37% price increase globally at the January 1, 2023, renewals according to Howden.

These higher prices, along with money-market returns, offer significant yield enhancements, providing insurers with capital to cover more risks. However, the ILS market’s structure, which permits cedents to extend maturities, may lead to investor caution. Instances of capital being trapped, such as in 2022 following Hurricane Ian, have occurred when cedents secure collateral post-maturity while assessing potential losses.

Palazola pointed out that the expected returns on catastrophe bonds, net of anticipated losses and excluding money-market fund yields, are at their highest since 2012.

“The current catastrophe-bond multiple, as measured by Artemis.bm, is at around 4.54x, 34% higher than 2022’s 3.38x and 144% better than 2017,” he said. “Multiples compressed in the 2010s as capital entered both the ILS and traditional reinsurance market, creating a supply-demand imbalance and dampening pricing across reinsurance products. Coupon rates in 2023 averaged 8.9%, the highest since 2012, and expected losses fell to 1.8%, the lowest since 2014’s 1.6%.”

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